LabCompass

Asa Palley

Decision Sciences · Indiana University

OpenAlex ORCID
Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsForecasting Techniques and ApplicationsBayesian Modeling and Causal InferenceMedical Malpractice and Liability IssuesExperimental Behavioral Economics Studies

Publications

36

Citations

286

Est. group size

—

Recurring co-author estimate

Active years

18

Publishing since 2009

Research summary
AI-generated

Asa Palley studies how people make judgments and forecasts under uncertainty, and how to combine and improve those judgments. A central theme is the 'wisdom of crowds'—developing methods to aggregate many individual predictions into more accurate group forecasts—along with understanding why people are often overconfident in their estimates. The work spans behavioral experiments, statistical forecasting techniques, and applications like financial analyst predictions and business planning.

Judgmental forecasting and the wisdom of crowdsOverconfidence and uncertainty in human judgmentBehavioral decision-making and economicsAggregating expert predictionsFinancial analyst forecasts

Publication activity has been fairly steady but modest over the past decade, averaging around 1.6 per year in the last five years with periodic clusters of output.

Generated by claude-opus-4-8 from public bibliographic data · Jul 11, 2026

Publication cadence
Publications per year over the last 10 years — averaging 1.6/year recently
2017: 3 publications17182019: 4 publications4192020: 1 publication202021: 1 publication21222023: 3 publications232024: 3 publications242025: 1 publication252026: 1 publication26
Recent publications
Publishes in
  • SSRN Electronic Journal×10
  • Management Science×6
  • OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)×3

This profile was generated automatically from public scholarly data (OpenAlex). Group size and activity levels are estimates derived from co-authorship patterns.

Last updated Jul 11, 2026.

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